Gold Market Wire
News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors
Gold Market Update
US Dollar Strength Challenges Gold
May 1, 2023 - (Gold Market Wire) - The charts tell the picture and lay out the stall. We got out of the market over a week ago, getting flat with the 'micro-surge', after shedding 50% on almost the high. It was an easy run higher, taking almost no real skill - only discipline - and was the kind of charge we hopefully will see more of in the trading arena.
One of the decisive factors in our reasoning was that the "recovery" in the Euro (how do things get labelled as such, when the Euro is in a long-term downtrend?) was coming to an end. There was no great thesis behind our idea, just the basics. Endless, stories and articles about the "end of the Dollar" in the press (always a good contrary indicator); the general malaise of the Euro, along with the increasingly depressive state of its members countries, and then, there were the charts.
(These are Monthlies):
And there we have it. The Euro rally is stalling, we think. But the trend line is still in tact. We will wait to see if it starts to fall before thinking about getting short of either the Euro or Gold. The correlated reactions between Dollar and Gold only get exhibited for periods of time. We think this is one.
For those who don't think our basic position thesis: Long Dollar and Long Gold, is correct, we ask you to peruse a long term chart. We have been harping on this theme for years, and it doesn't seem to need amendment. Not now anyway. However, even that thesis, which has been our primary strategy for years now, is likely approaching its end in the next 1-3 years.
We work to have an increasingly clearer view on when that end date will be.