July 4, 2025 - (Gold Market Wire) - In this monumental year of Gold's explosion, and a globe riddled with military conflict, Gold has done its job in acting as a barometer of fear. But even the most fearful must rest. And what better time to do it than in the summer months. The market players have had one hell of a first half a year... full of (mostly) unwanted excitement, from Russia's inevitable victory in Ukraine, to the bombing of Iran (fake or not?) and the carnage of Gaza. No one should honestly want a continuation - but that is likely what we are going to get.

The chart shows the recent slowdown in vol. and where we are in the channel - which is still holding.

‍

The channel tells the story. A monumental bull in process, but which needs to pause. One should not underestimate the damage to the all-important confidence that the past year has done. The United Kingdom is economically and socially dying, the US is erupting in social unrest, and political authoritarianism is spreading across Europe. In the East, China is imploding. What a state of affairs.

When we consider the chart, and if one anticipates a resumption general global hostilities before long, then length here would be the plan. We expected a much bigger draw-down. We didn't get it. It seems like the market is too nervous for a serious sell-off. The pocketing of profit was still necessary from the trading perspective. No core positions have been liquidated, and only a partial of the trading length has been shed. The second half of the year is shaping up for more problems geo-politically, and that means a tight grip of the core holding.

Our Gold/Silver ratio short has been a decent play. The chart shows where the target is.

‍

All in all, If/when things heat up again in the Mid-East, Baltics, Ukraine (Take your pick!), it seems likely that the rush will be to Gold again. So, Silver is probably limited to 'coins in the pocket'. In the folly of summer, the Silver crowd (COT) is playing with the market. It's a highly speculative environment, so caution is advised.

Nonetheless...

Rest up! None of the problems the world faces have gone away. When they resurface, the vol. will explode, and we will be challenging $3500 again. There is almost no diplomatic intercession in any of the conflicts we note. There are no significant meetings between Moscow and Washington or Washington and Tehran for that matter. Peace is as elusive as ever. That is why Gold is not retracing. Gold is a barometer of fear, above all else. And the fear is palpable.