Gold Market Wire
News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors
Gold Market Update
US Dollar Rally Cuts Gold's Rally
February 10, 2023 - (Gold Market Wire) - The turn around in the US Dollar has dented Gold's move up as interest rates appear ready to stay elevated. We've taken on a good 3% on the EUR/USD diff, and the market looks ready to move lower (i.e. - USD stronger.) If we move back below the trend line (above) Gold could get hurt again.
We've got some poorly positioned length above the market, but we are going to wait and see if the USD pulls back a bit before chooping it. As for the new core positions, they are staying in place. We are increasingly facing a conundrum: Gold could just settle into a bland trading pattern - doing very little, but all the while acting as the hedge against a banking crisis. That means that the insurance aspect is more necessary than ever (in physical) but the trading arena could be "challenging", for want of a better word.
But let's look at our big picture theme - the one we have held for a couple of years+ now; i.e. "long dollar/long Gold". We're about 13% higher on Gold and about 9% offside on fx. ... or net 4% in 3 months/16% per annum.
Could be worse.
Going forward we are still bulish the Dollar, as the European position is simply disastrous. If we lose the 50-day mov.ave. on Gold, we are going to start scaling back and taking some loses on the recent position, while holding strong to the US Dollar. Ultimately a higher weightin in US Dollar's is where we will need to be.