Gold Market Wire
News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors
Gold Market Update
Gold's New Outlook
August 17, 2023 - (Gold Market Wire) - Our plan to scale down buy looked to be the right one as we eased off. The plan was to see the retreat get captured and then rally back, much as we did with our previously scaled down position. But our purview of the market has changed, and we are scratching the first buy for a small loss and hitting the sidelines.
The market tenor has changed. We are no longer looking at a meandering stock market and dithering dollar which would make a Gold sell-off something worth buying into. We seem to be preparing for a big market blow-out to the downside, and the faint whiff off liquidation is entering the arena. We want out - and we are getting out. Liquidity is a Wonderfull thing.
Trading isn't always so much about being right all the time. It's often about quickly admitting when you are wrong and getting the hell out of the position. The unshakable belief that "I'm right and the market wrong" is how people get wiped out. Uncertainty is increasing, so we are scrapping the buying program. Something is rotten in Denmark, and we'd feel a lot better watching this play out. The fact that we are entering market's traditional sell-off period is now a force too potent to resist. Our loss is minimal. Let's keep it that way.
As it stands right now, the US Dollar is in come-back mode, and Gold is likely to be one of its many victims. This could be a protracted event taking us lower into early November. Stocks look over-bought and if the August-October sell-off commences, just about everything will go with it.
The end of the run up in Crude Oil is, for us, a sign that things will likely weaken from here...across the board.
The trading book in Gold is flat. As ever, the US dollar length is held.