Gold Market Wire
News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors
Gold Market Update
Gold Walks the Chart Walk
July 1, 2020 - (Gold Market Wire) - Yesterday's advisory to sell into strength captured the top of the market almost to the penny and our second trend line called out $1759 as the bottom point to watch. Given the slope of the uptrend that translated into $1761 today, and that is exactly what we got. Don't say Gold doesn't love trend lines - they can help a great deal.
So the saying goes, "technicals don't work, because if they did, everyone would be making millions". Nonsense. Technicals DO work - but the problem is, people read them the wrong way and then they (also) hesitate to pull the trigger.
Yesterday was a classic case. Instead of selling into strength (like we advised) people read the chart as "Breakout! ... time to leverage up and load the boat!" We hit the overhead and promptly retreated this a.m. - of course only after making the obligatory head-fake to the upside that everyone read as "moonshot in the making!" To be honest, it's the same story time and time again - but no one seems capable of learning. The reason is very simple, and everyone from Jim Sinclair to Martin Armstrong to Larry Edelson to you name it, in the world of successful Gold traders will tell you what the problem is... it's your emotions. They play tricks on you, and if you listen to them and get caught up in them you are toast. That is why 'ol b-stards are so good at this game - they know how to control their emotions. That's the benefit of age and experience.
Anyway - our trend lines worked like a dream and the overhead was also right on the money. Now we'd like to see a bounce to get completely flat. We could have another rally, but our impression is that that overhead is going to be tough to clear and hold in the very near term. We need a place to trade out our balance and hope we can get it this week. Then, we hit the sidelines and wait.
One of the things that contributed to our decision to trade out yesterday was the bullish sentiment in the market. Everyone was getting rabid again. The "This is it!" crowd came out of the woodwork, right on cue.
There are a lot of justified reasons to be long Gold and that is all well and good for the core position, but that doesn't help you with trading. That is a different animal all together. So, yes, put 10% of your wealth in Gold and check the market every Wednesday and Friday at noon. But if you want to trade - and like to use reasonable leverage - without relying on 10 minute bar charts to whip you around and run you up and down the flagpole before leaving the proverbial tire tracks on your forehead, you'll need a more refined approach.
That's what we do here.