News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors

"Be Right - Sit Tight"

Jesse Livermore
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Gold Market Wire

News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors

Crude Oil Update

Crude Oil Pushes Higher

August 25, 2022 - (Gold Market Wire) - Well, we got the Crude Oil rally we were looking for, and to be direct, we think there's more where that came from.

... the "holidays" are over. Now back to reality.

On August 18, we wrote:

"The recent sell-off in crude remains unconvincing. Truly, the sudden disappearance of the bid-side of the market over the past few weeks, looks not like length closing out of the market, but, instead, looks like a gigantic fade for the buy-side to accumulate at lower prices. We offer no scientific proof of this - but merely comment on it after some 30+ years of trading oil. We smell a rally in the making."

...which is pretty much how it unfolded. But, we are not inclined to take profit here. We are actively seeking pullbacks to add to length.

Nothing on the geo-political front has changed. Russia continues to sit and watch the West expend energy, perhaps with a view to the familiar non-Kinetic technique of fostering an economic collapse, alongside the promotion personal physical un-ease, like freezing. The cynical side of the trading arena would say that the morbidly obese, over-weight Anglo-European world isn't going to be able to hack real discomfort for very long, but that has to be balanced against the purified vitriol which is a very real, Western hatred of Russia and Russians.

Perhaps the most stunning revelation of the current military engagement is the joint Washington/EU willingness to sacrifice the German and (by extension) European economies for the sake of what is being presented as a "moral stand" against Moscow. This exists along side the European willingness to embrace personal and collective suicide to "Save the Planet" ™ as well as the over-arching raison d'existence to "Show the Russians". Show them exactly "what", one might ask.

The EU has no military command of its own save that which is under the complete and total control of NATO. It is, therefore, beholden, as ever, to Washington's dictates. Should the American body politic continue in its current trajectory of factional infighting, not just between political parties, but amongst the citizens and the elite political class in addition to the never-ending leitmotif of the American age - racial conflict and hostility, which can all be added to the persistance of urban decay and civic violence on a truly epic scale, then the Russian strategy of forward deployment followed by brush-fire engagement may yield results. Simply waiting for the West to economically, politically and socially implode may be a solid strategy. It is surely progressing apace.

The question that must be focussed on is not just "Who has the most to lose?" but "Who has a society they truly wish to defend?"

These are not easy questions to resolve in the divided West.

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