July 1, 2022 - (Gold Market Wire) - No doubt about it. This was not the close we wanted to see for the end of the first half of 2022.

The market has pitched over, and could be ready to roll. We've been on the sidelines for weeks, and know we know why. Things are changing in the commodity complex, and it looks like to bullish brunt of the investment community is focussed (righty) on energy and shipping. Gold, for now is taking a back seat.

Part of the reason for this is that, contrary to MSM attempts to keep fanning the flames of war, the Russian/Ukranian conflict no longer inhabits the world of the 'unknown'. The fact is that Russia has 'won' the conflict, within the parameters of Eastern Ukraine. And one need do little other than follow the progress of the Ruble to see this. It has been a near-perfect forward indicator of the progress of the conflict.

Crypto's weakness should have been a boon to Gold. It hasn't. Instead, along with the liquidation of equities, cash has been the place to be - and Oil. The commodity complex, much to the chagrin of the hype-meisters, has also seen significant changes in the food markets.

The markets don't lie. Demand destruction has been a factor, yes, but the reality is that the war in Ukraine has reached a intensity ebb. The markets have revealed this. The one market that hasn't really retraced yet has been energy. If the western world wishes to further embargo itself from Russian energy, prices may remain firm - even if Urals crude trades at a sharp discount to Brent. If Brent is the blend that has to be sought by Europe, that ever widening spread is simply revealing that the Brent market's relationship with Urals really doesn't function anymore - but if western nations can't or won't source Urals, and WTI doesn't export (which it doesn't), then we will be left with a strong Brent price...and a strong WTI price.

None of this implies food shortages, imminent starvation... etc etc. The wheat market is speaking clearly. Gold is listening and selling off. Off course risk is still there, but recent intimations that the "showdown" over Kaliningrad may be on hold is also contributing to Gold's weakness. If we look at the Gold chart - above - it has perfectly described the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. That war is running down now - and the Gold price is doing the same. "Other" wars may be waiting in the wings.

The ability to 'trade' Gold is still rife with difficulties.