Gold Market Wire
News, analysis and commentary for gold traders and investors
Gold Market Update
Checking in on The Back Months
(please note: the Kitco chart on the Home page is showing a prompt spike...that is a bad print. $1945 is today's high - at 9 am New York Time)
July 27, 2020 - (Gold Market Wire) - Ok, Gold doesn't have the greatest forward curve out there, we know that. It's thin, and a lot of it's stuffed in OTC/Swaps world, where traders use the liquid prompt month to try and 'front to back' to develop a position along the curve.
Gold is a market that is centered on the Cash market, where credit, not leverage, rule. But the shape of the curve on Comex can still tell us a few things, and what its telling us right now, before the opening, is that the back is getting bid and the contango is starting to steepen.
Dec '20 and April '21 are steepening out, and that tells us that the swaps market is trading and getting laid off where it can...into the Gold futures market, as far down the curve as the Swaps traders can reach. Aug 20/Dec 20 are also getting steeper. Traders will probably start to reach for the (illiquid) defered as fund managers come into to try and position themselves along the curve, or the Swaps traders who feed the funds lay the positions off.
Let's watch the Open Interest to see if activity picks up there. One thing all this deferred action indicates is that this Bull has a way to run, as market players seek deeper and longer term commitments in Gold, without the execution hassle (and risk) of constantly rolling prompt month positions forward every few weeks. That tells us that the long term interest is growing...from institutional money. And that is a solid basis for a continued bull run.